China's retail sales reflect the still solid economic condition in the midst of a potential slowdown in the fourth quarter. Factory output also improved even though it was overshadowed by a surge in commodity prices.
On Monday (15/November), China's National Bureau of Statistics released data on Retail Sales which increased from 4.4 percent to 4.9 percent year-over-year in October.
This figure broke economists' expectations for a 3.5 percent decline.
The better-than-expected data results revived the risk-on sentiment of market participants who had been worried by expectations of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Please note, Retail Sales is the main indicator of consumer spending that affects more than half of China's GDP.
The trend of retail spending that continues to improve is of course a positive signal in the last quarter of 2021.
High Commodity Prices Are Still a Risk
Industrial Production (factory output) increased 3.5 percent YoY in October, continuing the positive trend from September's gain of 3.1 percent.
China's factory output growth rate is in line with improving domestic demand and export markets.
However, China's manufacturing sector is still facing rising commodity prices, which makes producer prices more expensive.
In turn, this has the potential to suppress market demand.
Meanwhile, China's Fixed Asset Investment posted a positive performance with an increase of 6.1 percent year-to-date.
Although weaker than the previous period which reached 7.3 percent, this figure is still moving within the average range indicating the stability of the investment sector.
From the labor sector, the Unemployment Rate was observed to be at 4.9 percent, unchanged from September.
Although the labor market is quite solid so far, the production costs that must be borne by companies due to the surge in commodity prices have the potential to overshadow future employment.
The Chinese government has set a target of creating 11 million jobs in a bid to curb the unemployment rate that rose rapidly due to last year's pandemic.
According to statistics, China has created 11.3 million new jobs since the start of the year.
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