Speculation about four times the Fed's interest rate hikes will be more intense if the release of Non-farm Payroll data later tonight outperforms expectations.
The US dollar index (DXY) at the beginning of the European session on Friday (7/January) held in the 96.20s range that has been inhabited since the beginning of the week. The greenback briefly slipped on Wednesday, but then surged again following the release of hawkish FOMC minutes. Market participants are now waiting for the release of Non-farm Payroll data later tonight in the hope that the figures will continue to support expectations of a faster Fed rate hike.
The impact of the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting continues. Market participants have now even increased the projection of the frequency of the Fed's rate hikes for 2022 from three to four times.
There is an approximately 80 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2022. If the FOMC were to raise interest rates by the same amount each subsequent quarter, the Fed rate would rise from between 0.00-0.25 percent today to 1.00 percent in the following quarter. early 2023.
Speculation around the Fed's policy also heated up with the emergence of the Quantitative Tightening discourse in the minutes. A number of Fed officials also expressed support for this discourse in their recent public communications.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed could streamline its balance sheet soon after starting rate hikes. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly agrees with Bullard, even though he was previously known for his dovish views.
The four-time "Fed rate hike" plus Quantitative Tightening scenario will be even more widespread if the release of Non-farm Payroll data later tonight exceeds expectations. Current consensus predicts Non-farm Payroll to increase by 400k in December 2021.
"If (Non-farm Payroll) is a very strong number, the Fed will have more fuel to sustain its hawkish rhetoric, which further supports the probability of a March rate hike," analysts at NatWest said in a note to clients quoted as saying. by Reuters.
Post a Comment for "Strong Dollar Ahead of Non-farm Payroll Data Release "